WASHINGTON, DC and SAN JOSE, CA (Sept 3, 2008) USSoccerPlayers -- Tony Edwards and J Hutcherson talk about the shifting Conference standings in Major League Soccer and what this could mean for the rapidly approaching playoffs.
Tony Edwards: Hi J. We're into September now, and with only 7 games left in the MLS regular season for all the teams, we're a little more clear on the what each team needs for the playoffs and which teams are building for next year, no matter what they say.
Since we last talked in detail about the MLS standings, Houston, Columbus, and to some extent Chicago have taken control of their divisions, while San Jose, New York, and DC have emerged as legitimate playoff contenders. Maybe the biggest drop off has been New England, from top of the standings to technically tied for second, but really third in their division.
New England's relative drop has been talked about often enough, but the usual citations (too many out of MLS competitions, small roster, injuries), but in looking at the statistics, New England has the worst after halftime of games goal differential (11 scored and 19 given up). I'm not saying this is the only reason they've dropped to third place, but its probably one of them. The Revs also give up a lot of goals in the last part of the game, as they've given up 9 goals from the 76th minute onwards (tied with San Jose and Salt Lake) while Toronto has given up 10 goals over that period of time to lead the league in that dubious category.
No other contender is close, as Columbus has scored 19 of their 40 goals in the second half, while only giving up 11; the Fire have scored 14 and given up 8; and Houston is plus one (14 GF, 13 GA after halftime).
J Hutcherson: You know, for the opening months it looked like the MLS game template required the winning team to score before the 10th minute. Now, it seems like that window has moved to either side of halftime. New England could point at fatigue for the late game letup, but I doubt their players feel that way.
The Revs’ recent run has more to do with undervaluing goalkeeping. We all know how important Matt Reis is to the Revs, but so was Adin Brown before him. Take that piece out, and they go from elite to average with the results to make that point. They’re far from alone, but rushing Reis back and letting him get shelled proves what exactly? 13 shots on goal courtesy of Columbus, including the 90th minute insult.
TE: To follow your point about scoring in the first 10 minutes, the Revs lead the league in goals in the first 15 minutes of the game, with 7 this season. To further the point, no team in the league has a less than .650 winning percentage when scoring the first goal. The opposite remains true also, as evidenced by Columbus leading the league with a .375 winning percentage when allowing the first goal. To put that into some sort of perspective, the Crew has taken 12 points after they allowed the first goal and Colorado is 0-12-1 when allowing the first goal.
As you have noted all season long, New England is hardly alone in undervaluing goalkeeping. I'm enjoying the Earthquakes recent run as much as anyone, but if Joe Cannon goes down, Michael Gustavson, he of 0 minutes of MLS experience, becomes the Quakes GK during the stretch run and possibly into the playoffs.
We've each taken the Red Bulls to task, but doesn't their recent run of better play also deserve some mention. We've not been shy about asking if there is a plan in New Jersey, but have the #8 seed right now, they have the longest streak of consecutive minutes without giving up a goal this season, at 380, which just ended this past weekend, and they are giving up less than a goal a game at home. I don't think any of those numbers will cause a rush for tickets for the final four home games, but it might keep them in the playoffs.
Which, I might add, is the same job Bruce Arena did last year.
JH: Starting with the old Red Bulls regime’s definition as nothing successful as winning MLS Cup, there are enough teams where missing one player could prove the difference. New England (Reis) and Columbus (Schelotto) might top that list, shifting the vulnerability away from what most of us were more than willing to write off as a mediocre Western Conference.
The Rapids and Chivas USA have aptly demonstrated the issues with relying on a backup keeper, so we can set that potential disaster scenario aside. Especially since Chivas USA might get into the playoffs anyway and Colorado remains a better team than their record suggests. If I’m with any other team in the League, I wouldn’t want Chivas USA in the first round.
DC and New York would be the wildcard teams if it ended today, and neither of them should be thrilled that they’re not in the East’s top three. As we’ve covered before, DC’s partial rebuild overlooked the keeper, and their late upgrade might end up being as disruptive as anything else. New York’s transfer window rebuild wasn’t convincing, but they have more than three points on any club trying to grab that last wildcard slot.
TE: Given that two of Salt Lake, Chivas, and San Jose are likely to make the playoffs, I'm still sticking with the mediocre Western Conference. I don't share your confidence in Chivas USA. Going out weakly in the Champions League then beating Toronto's reserve team doesn't say playoff threat to me. Nor does their 3-6-0 record in one goal games.
Your point about Matt Reis is well taken, but New England has also given up almost 300 shots on goal (296 to be precise). The bottom four are NE with 296; Columbus with 304; Kansas City with 308; and the Galaxy at 315. So maybe some of the problem lies with midfielders and defenders? The Revs have only taken 256 SOG.
Then before we read too much into that statistic, the Rapids are first in only giving up 223 shots on goal. So there isn't necessarily a direct correlation between giving up fewer shots and success.
JH: Yet I continue to argue in favor of the Rapids being better than their record, so I like that 'shots on goal given up' stat. Regardless, what it does show is that defenses for the brighter lights of the Eastern Conference are porous and rely way too much on their keepers to keep things respectable. There’s also the issue of playoff impact. Not giving up a lot of shots per game would suggest closer contests, unless you get one of those nights where a team gets four looks and scores three.
TE: Those kind of nights happen.
I'd ask why the defenses for Columbus and New England are so porous. These are both teams coached by experienced, successful MLS coaches, they know how to make it work in this league. Steve Nicol is often cited as perhaps the best coach in the league. Both teams have experienced players in midfield and defense. And its not like either team plays a full speed ahead game.
It keeps coming back to money for me. You've asked why the league isn't willing to pay for defenders and so far there's no good answer for that.
JH: In fairness to the MLS business plan, there’s no good indication that there’s a difference between spending at this level and even doubling it. Considering what Championship clubs in England pay, much less the Mexican League, it’s going to take four or five times the MLS salary to get close to even with leagues already paying for the type of player MLS needs to improve.
Just take the players who played youth and/or college ball in the US and then opted for Europe or Mexico and you’ve got a Cup contender. There’s no league out there a step up in quality from MLS paying an average of $200k per player. It’s more than that, and MLS will need to adjust accordingly. Or not, which explains why coaches who know better still build teams with obvious flaws.
It remains a little galling that a League that won’t pay transfer fees but will sell for millions still won’t increase salaries.
