One Month Left
Graig Carbino outlines the race for the MLS Playoffs while revising his picks for November soccer. How much hope should the clubs at the bottom of the table still have? Can DC finish off their mid-season revival with a shocking late return to form? Will San Jose have enough to push into contention? Read on.
By Graig Carbino
ALBANY, NY (Oct 3, 2008) USSoccerPlayers -- Major League Soccer kicked off the final month of regular season play last night in Frisco as FC Dallas battled the San Jose Earthquakes to a 1-1 draw. With most clubs only having around four games left to play, there isn’t much wiggle room for teams near the foot of the standings. That said, no one is completely out of contention at this point. Good for competitive balance and keeping fans interested, not so good for pointing out a few clear “best teams.”
We can, however, look towards the top of the standings to see how things have shaken out thus far. In the West, the Houston Dynamo have stuck to the script: they just win games. They aren’t exactly setting the world on fire with 40 points up to this point, but they are doing enough to sit four points clear at the top with a game in hand on the rest of the West.
If the summit out West has skewed towards the norm, the top of the East has been blown right out of wack. The Columbus Crew sits atop the heap on 50 points through 26 games. Not an historic number by any stretch, but it's already 13 points better than where they finished the ’07 season. The Crew organization has done what most teams across the league have not had the will to do, they stuck with a struggling coach and allowed him time. Hopefully, this patience will act as an example for trigger-happy owners and management going forward.
Shifting the focus back to the West we see a ton of parity (parity in MLS? That’s new…) from spots two through seven. In fact, only seven points separate the hapless LA Galaxy (29 points) from second place and Home Depot Center roommates Chivas USA (36 points). It would appear that LA and San Jose are long shots to make the playoffs at this point. FC Dallas, Colorado, and Real Salt Lake (all on 34 points) would have to all really go into a slide for either the Galaxy or Earthquakes to squeak in. Sure, the math suggests otherwise for now, but it’s getting dim for Becks, Huckerby and their respective gangs.
Things look to be a bit more settled with the eastern conference race. As mentioned Columbus sits on top with their spot in the playoffs already clinched. New England and Chicago follow with 42 and 41 points respectively and seem to be heading in the right direction when it comes to securing their spot for November soccer. Chicago might worry a bit when it comes to the recent play of Blanco and Brian McBride, as the two haven’t seemed to click just yet, but one would have to assume that situation will resolve itself shortly.
The New York Red Bulls are fourth with 35 points. To demonstrate the difference between conferences, this point total would actually put them in third out west and only one point behind second place Chivas. DC United, my unfortunate March pick to win it all, sit fifth with 33 points. The Wizards are a point back on 32, in need a quick run to get back into the playoff picture. Toronto looks dead at 28 points. Sorry Red Patch Boys.
If things go to plan over the next month Columbus, New England, Chicago and New York will represent the East in the playoffs and Houston, Chivas and two from Dallas, Colorado and Salt Lake will make it out of the West.
There is a chance that DC United might make a move up the standings and a team from the East could snatch a spot away from a western conference club with fewer points. Kansas City, Toronto, San Jose and LA need a minor miracle to factor in any post-season soccer at this point.
Laying out the current state of the league standings and possible playoff scenarios wouldn’t be much fun without a few predictions would it? I didn’t think so. Assume that four teams from each conference make the playoffs and the seeds hold over the course of October, here is how I see things shaking out in November:
East
(1) Columbus defeats (4) New York
(2) New England defeats (3) Chicago
West
(1) Houston defeats (4) Colorado
(3) Salt Lake defeats (2) Chivas
Seeds hold in the East while I see one upset out West. I plugged in Colorado and Salt Lake into the 3 and 4 slots because I have not been sold on FC Dallas all season. Kenny Cooper is going to have to put that team on his back if they have any shot of making the playoffs. Salt Lake has some magic building with that beautiful new stadium and makes the second round.
East: (2) New England defeats (1) Columbus
West: (1) Houston defeats (3) Salt Lake
We are about to see three MLS Cup Finals in row played between the New England Revolution and the Houston Dynamo. I really like Columbus a lot. I like the experience and grit of New England just a bit better. Houston is a no-brainer out west. They have the skill, depth, and experience to make it to their third straight final. My only worry is their Champions League games clogging the schedule, but they still should have enough to get it done.
MLS Cup Final: New England defeats Houston
It can’t happen three years in a row. The Red Sox won, the Patriots always win, and the Celtics finally got it done. This pick is based more on symmetry and “third times the charm” than anything else. Plus New England played so bad in their CONCACAF Champions League qualifier that they only have MLS games to worry about from this point forward. Stevie Nicol and Paul Mariner will make the third go around count this year.
There’s my take on how the rest of the MLS season will shake out. Now it’s your turn. Tell us what you think below.
Graig Carbino covers American Abroad and writes a weekly column for USSoccerPlayers. Contact him at graiger11@yahoo.com
