With J Hutcherson -- What happens if the transfer market stalls over the next four weeks? Imagine something like the handful of truly major moves only involving the handful of clubs with money not really tied to the kind of fluctuations that have made formerly loaded owners merely well off.
It's a list about as long as the available targets. The ones with the proven pedigree to get a transfer fee above €20 million. Where does that leave the rest of the market? Part exchange, the lightly used trading system in European soccer where players switch clubs usually along with money? More pressure on the free transfer system? Clubs riding it out with what they had in place on December 31st?
As expected, we've already heard from some involved in that elite group saying they won't be spending unreasonably. Fair enough when you're in a position to define 'unreasonable' as whatever you happen to be willing to spend.
The chances those top clubs can pull the rest of the market up with them seem slim. At the same time, so do clubs not taking any risks at all.
Contemporary European soccer isn't designed to start an eleven in August that looks remarkably similar to the one lifting a trophy in May.
Good teams gut themselves for January cash every season. What this does to those same clubs when they end up low-balled or outright stuck with players should be entertaining. That's in the literal sense, with clubs that would otherwise hamper their own chance at success potentially keeping their players and waiting for a better market.
It might not be the best thing for the finances, but it could potentially raise the level of competition in both directions. Clubs looking for an answer to finish first along with those looking to throw money at the player who salvages their season simply shut out due to lack of funds.
Sure, there's always going to be contract year players that clubs are looking to move. The oddity of the European system where transfer values still trump trades.
A few years ago, the plight of the selling club was a real concern across Europe. Small clubs should be rewarded for the talent they pay to produce well past the initial transfer fee. Rules were put in place and the conversation basically set aside.
Fast-forward a few years and we could see the next stage. Talent that nobody will afford to buy. The multiple tiers of available players costing less yet attracting few bidders should need more than one transfer window to take hold, but it's the soccer equivalent of the financial crisis. Dropping values where a club has already invested along with the inability to buy on credit.
Where it gets ugly is the European willingness to tamper with the system. From those running the game to those running the government, everybody wants a say.
Comments, questions, solutions to problems that have yet to present themselves. Please, tell me all about it.
